COVID-19 & Access to Healthcare

As of March 26, 2020 Data

How do the density of doctors and COVID-19 recovery rates relate across the globe?

Process Note

Not only is this pandemic unprecedented in how much it has shut down the economy, but also in how much it is constantly being tracked and reported on. The last pandemic was arguably the 2009 H1N1 flu and in that era we were just beginning to understand how to use data. In the decade since, it has become more democratized than ever, with the result that sites like JHU’s can exist at all. It is both traumatizing and fascinating to be a computer-literate citizen at this time.

The following three analyses are based on data from

• Johns Hopkins University (JHU) on numbers of cases, deaths, and recoveries as of March 26, 2020,
• and the World Health Organization (WHO) on the density of medical doctors per 10,000 people as of 2016.

Datasets are all in this spreadsheet.

In each instance, accessibility to healthcare is judged by the density of medical doctors per 10,000. The higher the number, the more access to healthcare there should be in a country. In general, collecting data in real time during a crisis like this is unprecedented, and rife with possible inaccuracies. The most glaring room for error is the fact that cases can only be confirmed by a test, which is notoriously scarce at this point in time. It is important to note that the recovery and death rates are only representative of data available at this moment in time, rather than a comprehensive picture. The rates themselves have a significant margin of error.

Confirmed Cases vs. Access to Healthcare

I was curious how the density of cases compares to access to healthcare in a country. To make the data comparable, I divided the number of confirmed cases by 10,000 to compare cases per 10,000 with doctors per 10,000. Here is the visualization: //datawrapper.dwcdn.net/HqI6K/3/

The US, anecdotally, has a density that’s somewhere in the middle of the range and was just announced to have the most cases in the world, beating out Italy. In this view, so many countries that have been counted as impacted by COVID-19 don’t have a confirmed density that even shows on the visualization.

Recovery Rate vs. Access to Healthcare

My hypothesis was that recovery rate would be positively correlated with higher access to healthcare — the more density of doctors, the more recovered cases.

I calculated recovery rate as a percentage: recovered cases / total confirmed cases and compared it to the density of doctors. Here is the visualization: //datawrapper.dwcdn.net/tP8Fy/2/

The hypothesis is proven wrong: there is not a correlation. Many explanations are possible here. People who are on their way to recovery aren’t yet officially counted as recovered because it takes time. It’s also possible that doctors don’t help all that much in recovering from this virus — many people are told to stay home and treat themselves, rather than see a doctor in person.

Death Rate vs. Access to Healthcare

My hypothesis was that death rate would be correlated with access to healthcare — the lower the density of doctors, the higher the death rate.

I calculated death rate as a percentage: deaths / total confirmed cases and compared it to the same density of doctors. Here is the visualization: //datawrapper.dwcdn.net/gYvQn/3/

Again, my hypothesis is proven wrong: there is not a correlation. The countries with the highest death rates — Gabon and Bangladesh — also have a lower density of doctors. However, the third highest death rate is Italy and it has one of the highest densities of doctors, along with Austria and Sweden.

Concluding Thoughts and Future Implications

This is just one way to understand the drastic differences in access to healthcare based on country of residence, which is important even without the correlation to COVID-19 death rates. It is a relevant point to keep in mind, especially for foundations or charitable individuals that are considering how to make the most impact during this or any pandemic. Social impact investors and biotech startups would also do well to consider this data in their future endeavors. Equalizing access to medical doctors globally is a noble cause, before, during, and after the COVID-19 era.